After taking last week off, Matt is back with some winning picks for everyone. This is our first time trying something like this, so we apologize for some of the scheduling stuff. What we won’t apologize for, however, is the wins.
Matt’s plays (YTD 14-9):
Florida vs. Texas A&M (A&M -3; O/U 54.5):
Texas A&M is at a complete crossroads this season, and in danger of losing their 5th straight. I think that puts them in the perfect spot to bounce back against a middling Florida team. The Aggies last three losses have been in very close games (margins of 4, 6 and 3), and the offense is starting to show a little more juice than at the beginning of the season. For as bad as Jimbo Fisher has been this year, I trust his experience over a first year P5 head coach such as Florida’s Billy Napier. Kyle Field will be too much for Napier and the sporadic Anthony Richardson. With that in mind, I’ll lay the points with A&M.
Pick: Texas A&M -3
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh (Pitt -4; O/U 48.5):
I don’t trust either of these quarterbacks right now. Syracuse got pasted last week by a Notre Dame team that had been pretty pedestrian. Now, they will be going with a backup QB this week making his first career start on the road. I think the Cuse staff will think their best path to victory as leaning on RB Sean Tucker and the ground game. This is a tough spot for the Syracuse offense.
Meanwhile Pitt’s QB Kedon Slovis is going through a rough patch with 188 pass ypg, 0 TD and 3 INT over the last 3 games. They have been relying on the run game heavily in that stretch, and running back Israel Abanikanda has attempted 30 rushes per game in those matchups. Pat Narduzzi has shown that he is more than happy to be a run happy offense over the tenure of his time as Pitt’s head coach. They will be fine slowing down the pace of this game and relying on the recent success of Abanikanda. All this combined, I am not expecting either of these teams to light up the scoreboard.
Pick: Under 48.5
Alabama vs. LSU (LSU +13.5; O/U 56.5):
After starting the season slow, LSU’s offense has scored 45 points in each of its last 2 games. While I don’t expect them to score that many in this spot, I do think they will find success on the Alabama defense. Being at home is a huge benefit for the offense, and QB Jayden Daniels will keep the defense honest with his threat of running the ball.
I don’t think much needs to be said about Alabama’s ability to score points. Off a bye, I think the points will be scored in bunches for the Crimson Tide. 5 touchdowns will be no problem for Bryce Young and company. I’ll bet on LSU being able to make up the rest of the ground for the over.
Pick: Over 56.5
Oregon vs. Colorado (CU +31.5; O/U 63):
The Cal win seems like a century ago at this point. Rod Chance was able to coordinate a strong defensive performance in that victory, but since then, the defense has been an unmitigated disaster. Oregon has scored over 40 points in every single game since their opener against Georgia. Their run and pass game are both deadly, and I think they will be able to do whatever they want on offense on Saturday. There’s no way the Ducks don’t score at least 50
Pick: Oregon team total over 47.5