Betting the Buffaloes: Home Underdogs Against the Trojans

14 attempts. One giant goose egg. Since 1927, Colorado is 0-14 all-time against USC. In fact, the Trojans are the only Pac-12 team the Buffaloes haven’t defeated since joining the conference in 2011. The last time they met in 2019, the Buffaloes held a 10-point lead entering the fourth quarter only to see it erased by two Kedon Slovis touchdown passes to Michael Pittman. Slovis is back, but these aren’t your typical Trojans. The preseason favorite to win the Pac-12 South by the media, USC has struggled in the early going, losing to Stanford and Oregon State while losing their head coach (Clay Helton) in the process. Which is why the Trojans enter Boulder Saturday as only seven-point favorites according to the VegasInsider.com consensus.

ODDS, OVER/UNDER, & MONEYLINE (per VegasInsider.com consensus):

Spread: USC -7

Over/Under: 51

1^st Half Spread: USC -3 ½

1^st Half Over/Under: 24 ½

Moneyline: USC -270; Colorado +230

PREDICTION:

After deciding to take a week off, yours truly is back and ready to offer up some sage gambling advice for Week 5. Since putting up 35 points in their season opener, the Buffaloes managed a mere 20 points in their next three games (Texas A&M, Minnesota and Arizona State) combined. If they expect to right the ship against the Trojans, they’ll have to do it on the ground. After all, Colorado’s passing offense averages 85 yards per game through the air, which ranks 128^th in the nation. Air Force ranks 127^th, Army 129^th and Navy dead last at 130^th and the military schools rarely throw the ball. The good news for the Buffaloes? Last week, USC surrendered 322 rushing yards (6.3 yards per carry) to Oregon State in a 45-27 loss. The Trojans have also turned the ball over nine times in their first four games. If the Buffaloes can force turnovers and run the ball with success Saturday afternoon, they certainly have a chance to stop this losing streak against the Trojans.

I took Colorado to cover against Minnesota for 100 “beans” and the under for another 50. The under hit, Colorado didn’t, so I’m beginning this week with 1,050 beans. While I do think the Buffaloes will have some success running the ball, they’ve only covered the spread on one occasion this season (vs. Texas A&M), and I don’t expect it to happen this Saturday either. Time to up the ante. Give me 150 beans on USC to cover and another 100 on the total to be under 51. Until this Buffaloes offense shows me something, the under seems a lot more realistic. Of course, I hope I’m wrong and the Buffaloes finally take down the Men of Troy. One can only hope.

Game time is set for Noon MT on Pac-12 Network.