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As part of our current promo work with EA Sports and NCAA Football 14 (not for much longer!) our friends over at Pacific Takes recently used the game to simulate multiple (five) Pac-12 seasons to try and get an idea for how this year's teams may fare. Obviously, I wouldn't take any predictions from the game to the bank and it's really just a fun exercise to help us kill time in the offseason, but the whole thing got me thinking about the Buffaloes and our expectations in Mike MacIntyre year one.
6. Colorado 4.4 wins and 7.6 losses (2.8 wins and 6.2 losses)
Obviously four wins isn't a good season, but I think that would actually be a very good outcome for the Buffs. The simulations don't ever have them making it to a bowl, but they come close, winning five games in two simulations.
A low of a four (and a half) win season? A high over seven? Hmm... At first glance that seems pretty damn good to me. Much better than I would have picked if I had guessed. The computer has the Buffs almost always losing at least a game in the non-conference schedule but still winning at least two in the Pac-12. Is the game taking into account the improvement that a team usually sees over the course of a season with a new head coach? Surely not, but what else can explain it (besides, well, it's a game)?
So realistically, what would make you happy? Not "holy crap we got good" happy, but "I can see some hope in this program in the future" happy. Three wins? Five? For me, with the non-conference schedule as is, I expect three wins (Fresno scares me to death) and anything more would leave me pleasantly surprised.
Let's hear your thoughts in the comments below.
See the full results below:
North
1. Oregon 10.6 wins and 2.8 losses (7.6 wins and 2.4 losses)
One Pac-12 championship, two Pac-12 Championship Game appearances, one BCS National Championship Game Appearance (Loss to Boise State), two Sugar Bowls, one Alamo Bowl and one Sun Bowl
The Ducks ended up with the best overall and in-conference record in the conference, but only narrowly. They made it to the BCS Championship in one simulation, qualified for BCS bowls in three out of the five and only finished with less than 10 wins in one.
2. Washington 10.4 wins and 3.2 losses (7.4 wins and 2.6 losses)
One Pac-12 championship, three Pac-12 Championship Game appearances, one Rose Bowl, one Orange Bowl, two Alamo Bowls, one Las Vegas Bowl
The computer loves the Huskies for some reason this year. They won the Pac-12 North in three out of the five simulations and twice made it to BCS bowls.
3. Stanford 6.2 wins and 6.4 losses (3.6 wins and 5.4 losses)
Three New Mexico Bowls
Wow, maybe it is because they play football the way your burly older brother would when you played video games against him, but the computer hates, hates, hates Stanford. The Cardinal will almost assuredly be a Top 5 team going into the season, but the computer doesn't have them winning more than seven games in any simulation or making a bowl better than the New Mexico Bowl.
4. Oregon State 6 wins and 6.6 losses (3.6 wins and 5.4 losses)
Two Kraft Fight Hunger Bowls, one Russell Athletic Bowl
The computer doesn't like the Beavers much either apparently, as they have the team, which will likely being the season in the Top 25, only finishing with winning records twice, and never winning more than five conference games.
5. Washington State 4.8 wins and 7.6 losses (2.6 wins and 7.4 losses)
One Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, one BBVA Compass Bowl
The computer generally expects the Cougars to have a similar season to what they did in 2012, but does have them breaking out in a couple of simulations that have them making lower-level bowl games and, in one, finishing with seven wins.
6. Cal 3 wins and 9 losses (2.2 wins and 6.8 losses)
I don't think many expect the Bears to do much in Sonny Dykes' first season, but the computer really doesn't, never having them qualify for a bowl in any of the simulations.
South
1. USC 9.8 wins and 3.8 losses (7 wins and 2.6 losses)
Two Pac-12 championships, three Pac-12 Championship Game appearances, two Rose Bowls, two Alamo Bowls, one Holiday Bowl
Even if they don't have the sky high expectations that they usually have, the Trojans are still infinitely talented, and that usually bodes well for video games. The computer sees the Trojans have a bounce back season as they are the only team that they have winning the Pac-12 championship more than once.
2. UCLA 8.2 wins and 5.2 losses (5.6 wins and 3.8 losses)
One Pac-12 championship, two Pac-12 Championship Game appearances, one Rose Bowl, two Holiday Bowls, one Las Vegas Bowl, one Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
The computer likes, but doesn't love, the Bruins and has them peaking once with a 10-win season, a Pac-12 championship and Rose Bowl appearance.
3. Arizona 7.4 wins and 5.4 losses (4.6 wins and 4.4 losses)
Three Sun Bowls, one Las Vegas Bowl
The simulations are very similar to how I think most people believe 2013 will go for the Wildcats. The computer has the Wildcats finishing with a winning record in every simulation except one and has them making it to the Sun Bowl most of the time.
4. Utah 6.8 wins and 6 losses (3.8 wins and 5.2 losses)
One Sun Bowl, One Las Vegas Bowl, Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, One New Mexico Bowl
Other than Stanford struggling in mediocrity, this is the big surprise spit out by the simulations. No one seems to think that the Utes will even have a decent season, but the computer has them finishing with a winning record in every season but one.
5. Arizona State 6.4 wins and 6.4 losses (4.2 wins and 4.8 losses)
Two Holiday Bowls, one Las Vegas Bowl, one BBVA Compass Bowl
The Sun Devils hover in the same territory of seven or eight wins as Arizona but get drug down by one random two-win season, otherwise they are near, but not at, the top of the Pac-12 South.
6. Colorado 4.4 wins and 7.6 losses (2.8 wins and 6.2 losses)
Obviously four wins isn't a good season, but I think that would actually be a very good outcome for the Buffs. The simulations don't ever have them making it to a bowl, but they come close, winning five games in two simulations.