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With the announcement yesterday that Colorado has replaced the postponed Fresno State game with a contest against FCS opponent Charleston Southern we know now what the Buffs schedule looks like the rest of the way. We also have five weeks worth of results to help us measure what kind of teams they will be taking on. We dug in and gave our best guess at a win probability below.
I'd love to see where you guys would differ on the percentages so let me know in the comments.
| Date | Opponent | Location | Time | Result/Rank | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 01 | Colorado State | Denver, CO | 4:00 p.m. | 41 - 27(W) | |
| Sat, Sep 07 | Central Arkansas | Boulder, CO | 6:00 p.m. | 38 - 24(W) | |
| Sat, Sep 28 | Oregon State | at Corvallis, OR | 1:00 p.m. | 17 - 44(L) | |
| Sat, Oct 05 | Oregon | Boulder, CO | 4:00 p.m. | #2 | The odds of anyone beating the Ducks are pretty slim, especially the Buffs. Chance of victory: 1% |
| Sat, Oct 12 | Arizona State | at Tempe, AZ | 8:00 p.m. | #22 | For some reason CU just doesn't play well against the Sun Devils and they're getting better, not worse. Chance of victory: 10% |
| Sat, Oct 19 | Charleston Southern | Boulder, CO | TBA | N/A | I wish I could go 99% here, but the Buffs just aren't there yet. Still, it should be a win. Chance of victory: 85% |
| Sat, Oct 26 | Arizona | Boulder, CO | TBA | N/A | On the other hand the Buffs DO play well against the Wildcats. Chance of victory: 50% |
| Sat, Nov 02 | UCLA | at Pasadena, CA | TBA | #12 | UCLA is another school that the Buffs have really struggled with lately. Chance of victory: 10% |
| Sat, Nov 09 | Washington | at Seattle, WA | TBA | #15 | Husky Stadium is an even tougher place to play know and the Buffs could be pretty beat up at this point. Chance of victory: 15% |
| Sat, Nov 16 | California | Boulder, CO | TBA | N/A | May be the most winnable Pac-12 game this year, but defense will have to step up. Chance of victory: 60% |
| Sat, Nov 23 | USC | Boulder, CO | TBA | N/A | Who knows what shape USC will be in by the time they come to Boulder. Chance of victory: 55% |
| Sat, Nov 30 | Utah | at Salt Lake City, UT | TBA | N/A | The Buffs seemingly up the level of play against Utah, but they seem to be much improved this year. Chance of victory: 45% |
Here's a look at the most recent AP to see where the Pac-12 stacks up.
| Rank | Team | Record | Votes | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama (55) | 4-0 | 1,495 | 1 |
| 2 | Oregon (5) | 4-0 | 1,422 | 2 |
| 3 | Clemson | 4-0 | 1,354 | 3 |
| 4 | Ohio State | 5-0 | 1,305 | 4 |
| 5 | Stanford | 4-0 | 1,280 | 5 |
| 6 | Georgia | 3-1 | 1,171 | 9 |
| 7 | Louisville | 4-0 | 1,091 | 7 |
| 8 | Florida State | 4-0 | 1,069 | 8 |
| 9 | Texas A&M | 4-1 | 1,012 | 10 |
| 10 | LSU | 4-1 | 979 | 6 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 4-0 | 838 | 14 |
| 12 | UCLA | 3-0 | 834 | 13 |
| 13 | South Carolina | 3-1 | 812 | 12 |
| 14 | Miami (FL) | 4-0 | 753 | 15 |
| 15 | Washington | 4-0 | 665 | 16 |
| 16 | Northwestern | 4-0 | 550 | 17 |
| 17 | Baylor | 3-0 | 536 | 19 |
| 18 | Florida | 3-1 | 481 | 20 |
| 19 | Michigan | 4-0 | 471 | 18 |
| 20 | Texas Tech | 4-0 | 264 | 24 |
| 21 | Oklahoma State | 3-1 | 230 | 11 |
| 22 | Arizona State | 3-1 | 192 | NR |
| 23 | Fresno State | 4-0 | 187 | 25 |
| 24 | Mississippi | 3-1 | 132 | 21 |
| 25 | Maryland | 4-0 | 119 | NR |
| Others Receiving Votes: Northern Illinois 104, Virginia Tech 49, Wisconsin 46, Nebraska 20, Missouri 14, Notre Dame 12, UCF 6, Michigan State 5, Rutgers 2 |