Betting the Buffaloes: Home underdogs against Oregon State

Fresh off a 23-point drubbing at the hands of Oregon, the Colorado Buffaloes return to Boulder to face Oregon State Saturday evening. The Beavers are 6-5 all-time against the Buffaloes in a series which dates to 1931. However, Colorado has won three of the last four games against Oregon State, with their only loss coming in their last meeting in 2018. A lot has changed since then. While the Buffaloes (2-6, 1-4 in conference) are still searching to find an identity under second-year head coach Karl Dorrell, Jonathan Smith has the Beavers (5-3, 3-2 conf.) one win from bowl eligibility and fighting for a Pac-12 North title. Oregon State is 4-3 ATS this season, and the over has hit in four of their last seven games, including their last two. Colorado is 3-4 ATS and the over has only hit twice this season, with one push against USC.

ODDS, OVER/UNDER, & MONEYLINE (per VegasInsider.com consensus):

Spread: Oregon State -10 ½

Over/Under: 54

1^st Half Spread: Oregon State -6

1^st Half Over/Under: 27 ½

Moneyline: Colorado +330, Oregon State -400

PREDICTION:

Oregon State opened as 12-point favorites, but the line has since dropped to 10½. Running back B.J. Baylor is the focal point of this Oregon State offense. The junior leads the Pac-12 with 872 rushing yards this season and his 6.66 rush yards per carry ranks 11^th in the nation. With Colorado linebacker Nate Landman – who was recently named one of 16 Butkus Award Semifinalists – “doubtful” for this game, B.J. Baylor and company should be able to run the ball with ease. Beavers quarterback Chance Nolan can also be a threat. He’s thrown for 1,504 yards and 13 touchdowns and leads all Pac-12 signal callers with a 156.09 passer efficiency rating this year. And then there’s Nolan’s backup, Sam Noyer, who just so happens to know a little about this Colorado offense. The redshirt-senior played for the Buffaloes from 2017-’20.

The good news for the Buffaloes? All three of the Beavers losses - Purdue, Washington State and last week at California - have come on the road this season. Plus, Brendon Lewis completed 25-of-33 passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns last week against Oregon. With La’Vontae Shenault back this week, Lewis will have a full arsenal of receivers at his disposal against Oregon State.

Last week, yours truly pocketed 280 beans as the Buffaloes covered against the Ducks. That brings my total to a whopping 1,760 “beans” on the season. There’s no stopping this scribe now. November is upon us. I like the Buffaloes offense to keep pace with the Beavers this week. Give me 160 beans on the Buffaloes to cover the 10½ points and another 100 on the total score to be over 54 points. Confidence level is a three out of five on both picks.

Game time is set for 5:00 P.M. MT on Pac-12 Network.