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Betting the Buffaloes: Home underdogs against Oregon State

The Buffaloes host the Beavers to begin their November slate.

NCAA Football: Oregon State at Colorado Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Fresh off a 23-point drubbing at the hands of Oregon, the Colorado Buffaloes return to Boulder to face Oregon State Saturday evening. The Beavers are 6-5 all-time against the Buffaloes in a series which dates to 1931. However, Colorado has won three of the last four games against Oregon State, with their only loss coming in their last meeting in 2018. A lot has changed since then. While the Buffaloes (2-6, 1-4 in conference) are still searching to find an identity under second-year head coach Karl Dorrell, Jonathan Smith has the Beavers (5-3, 3-2 conf.) one win from bowl eligibility and fighting for a Pac-12 North title. Oregon State is 4-3 ATS this season, and the over has hit in four of their last seven games, including their last two. Colorado is 3-4 ATS and the over has only hit twice this season, with one push against USC.

ODDS, OVER/UNDER, & MONEYLINE (per VegasInsider.com consensus):

Spread: Oregon State -10 ½

Over/Under: 54

1st Half Spread: Oregon State -6

1st Half Over/Under: 27 ½

Moneyline: Colorado +330, Oregon State -400

PREDICTION:

Oregon State opened as 12-point favorites, but the line has since dropped to 10½. Running back B.J. Baylor is the focal point of this Oregon State offense. The junior leads the Pac-12 with 872 rushing yards this season and his 6.66 rush yards per carry ranks 11th in the nation. With Colorado linebacker Nate Landman – who was recently named one of 16 Butkus Award Semifinalists“doubtful” for this game, B.J. Baylor and company should be able to run the ball with ease. Beavers quarterback Chance Nolan can also be a threat. He’s thrown for 1,504 yards and 13 touchdowns and leads all Pac-12 signal callers with a 156.09 passer efficiency rating this year. And then there’s Nolan’s backup, Sam Noyer, who just so happens to know a little about this Colorado offense. The redshirt-senior played for the Buffaloes from 2017-’20.

The good news for the Buffaloes? All three of the Beavers losses - Purdue, Washington State and last week at California - have come on the road this season. Plus, Brendon Lewis completed 25-of-33 passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns last week against Oregon. With La’Vontae Shenault back this week, Lewis will have a full arsenal of receivers at his disposal against Oregon State.

Last week, yours truly pocketed 280 beans as the Buffaloes covered against the Ducks. That brings my total to a whopping 1,760 “beans” on the season. There’s no stopping this scribe now. November is upon us. I like the Buffaloes offense to keep pace with the Beavers this week. Give me 160 beans on the Buffaloes to cover the 10½ points and another 100 on the total score to be over 54 points. Confidence level is a three out of five on both picks.

Game time is set for 5:00 P.M. MT on Pac-12 Network.