Betting the Buffs: Slight Dogs Against Huskies

After taking one on the chin in Pasadena last Saturday, the Buffaloes (3-7, 2-5 Pac-12) return home to face the Huskies (4-6, 3-4 Pac-12) in the season’s final game at Folsom Field.

Washington holds a 12-6-1 all-time lead in the series which dates all the way back to 1915. The Huskies have won nine of the last 10 against the Buffaloes, however Colorado prevailed in their last meeting, 20-14 in Boulder in 2019.

Washington enters the game having dropped two straight at home, 26-16 versus Oregon and 35-30 versus Arizona State. The Huskies are 3-6 ATS this season, with the over hitting in only two of those nine contests. The Buffaloes are 4-5 ATS with their last three contests going over the point total.

ODDS, OVER/UNDER, & MONEYLINE (per VegasInsider.com consensus):

Spread: Washington -6 ½
Over/Under: 43
1^st Half Spread: Washington -3 1/2
1^st Half Over/Under: 21 ½
Moneyline: Washington -250, Colorado +210

PREDICTION:

Just when it appears Buffaloes signal caller Brendon Lewis has found his form, in walks the nation’s top-ranked pass defense. Over the last three weeks Lewis has thrown for 552 yards, six touchdowns and has completed 68.7 percent of his passes without an interception. This week he’ll face a Washington defense that is surrendering a mere 136.3 passing yards per game.

That said, the Huskies defense is vulnerable. They allow 204.3 rush yards per game which ranks 116^th in the nation. Last week, Jarek Broussard, Alex Fontenot and Deion Smith combined for 203 rush yards and two touchdowns in a 44-20 loss to UCLA. They’ll need to have similar success on the ground if they expect to beat the Huskies.

Washington’s biggest threat offensively might be quarterback Dylan Morris, (2,071 pass yards, 12 TD) who has a quartet of wide receivers and a tight end at his disposal each of whom have 23-plus receptions this season. But Morris is also inconsistent, hence his 122.4 passing efficiency coupled with 10 interceptions thrown, the most among Pac-12 starting quarterbacks. As a result, highly touted freshman Sam Huard could see some time at quarterback for the Huskies. Whether it’s Morris or Huard or a combination of both, it shouldn’t matter. Washington’s defense will be too stifling for the Buffaloes.

After the Buffaloes failed to cover against UCLA, my record sits at 10-2-1 for a total of 1,940 “beans” this season. Since I’m still playing with house money, give me 140 beans on the Huskies to cover the six and a half points and another 100 on the total to be under 43. Confidence level on each selection is a two-out-of-five.

Game time is set for 1:00 P.M. MT on Pac-12 Network.