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Betting the Buffaloes: Huge Underdogs at Oregon

The Buffaloes face the No. 7 Ducks in Eugene  

NCAA Football: Colorado at Oregon Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Following a 26-3 loss at California in Week 8, the Colorado Buffaloes now travel to Eugene, Ore. where they are 24-point underdogs against the No. 7 Ducks. Oregon holds a 13-9 advantage in this series, which dates to 1949, and have won seven of their last eight against Colorado since 2002. The Buffaloes lone win in that span came in 2016, when Steven Montez, making his first career start, led Colorado to a 41-38 win at Autzen Stadium. Despite their 6-1 record, the Ducks have only covered the spread twice this season; last week in a 34-31 win at UCLA and back in September when they upset then No. 3 Ohio State in Columbus 35-28. Likewise, the Buffaloes have only covered twice. Once in their 10-7 loss against Texas A&M on September 11 and in their 34-0 romping of Arizona on October 16.

ODDS, OVER/UNDER, & MONEYLINE (per VegasInsider.com consensus):

Spread: Oregon -24

Over/Under: 49

1st Half Spread: Oregon -14 ½

1st Half Over/Under: 27

Moneyline: Colorado +1400, Oregon -4000

PREDICTION:

Oregon opened as 28-point favorites on Sunday, but that line quicky dropped to 24 by Monday afternoon. Aside from a 41-point win over Stony Brook, the Ducks haven’t really blown any team out this season. Even winless Arizona managed to drop 19 points on Oregon in a 22-point loss. And the Wildcats only trailed by five entering the fourth quarter. Thus, it goes without saying, Oregon’s defense is susceptible. Especially their secondary. Entering Saturday, the Ducks have allowed 266.6 passing yards per game, which ranks 109th in the nation. The big question is which Brendon Lewis shows up for Colorado? The Brendon Lewis that was 12-of-19 for 248-yards and two touchdowns against Arizona two weeks ago? Or the Brendon Lewis that only managed 69 passing yards, threw an interception, and was sacked six times in a 23-point loss to California last week. This scribe is betting on the latter.

If you’ve been paying attention to these columns, yours truly is on a mini-hot streak of sorts. Two weeks ago, I correctly picked Colorado to beat Arizona outright and hit the under. After sitting out last week, my total now sits at 1,480 “beans” on the season. As much as I’d like to drop 80 beans on the +1400 odds that Colorado wins this game outright - which would amount in a 1,200-bean payout - I’m not that confident. Give me the Buffaloes and the 24-points to cover for 280 beans and I’m going to avoid any wager on the total score.

Game time is set for 1:30 P.M. MT on FOX.