Colorado’s chances for bowl eligibility from here on out

The Colorado Buffaloes (4-4, 1-4 Pac-12) may have thought they would be closer to a bowl berth at this point in the season but there’s still a good opportunity to get back to a bowl. It will take two wins in the next five weeks for the Buffs to be bowl bound for a second straight season.

Here’s an early look at CU’s win probability for the remaining 2017 schedule.

Oct. 28 | California Golden Bears | Win probability: 60%

The Buffs are favored in Saturday’s game by 3.5 points and need to build momentum heading into the last month of the regular season. If there’s an opponent that Colorado could look great against this season, it could be California. But anything can happen in the Pac-12, just ask the No. 15 Washington State Cougars, who met the Bears and were handed an unexpected upset 37-3 loss. A preseason media poll projected Cal dead last in the Pac-12 North at season’s end. Both teams need this game to see December and will come out swinging.

Nov. 4 | at Arizona State Sun Devils | Win probability: 35%

CU fans should pay close attention to this week’s Pac-12 After Dark matchup between ASU and No. 21 USC (8:45 pm/ESPN). The precursor will provide some insight into the Buffs upcoming opponents, not to mention great film study material for both teams in late-season form. As the season has transpired, Arizona State has become a much stronger team thanks to a better defensive effort. Colorado has never came out of Tempe with a win in four tries dating back to 2006. Don’t know if this will be the year, but there’s a first time for everything.

Nov. 11 | USC Trojans | Win probability: 25%

The last two meetings between the Buffaloes and Trojans has been decided by a combined total of seven points. History stands in USC’s favor— shutting out Colorado (0-11 all-time) all the way back to the first meeting in Los Angeles in 1927. A favorite to win the conference title this season, the Trojans have slid down the rankings after a blowout loss to No. 13 Notre Dame. Regardless of the standings, if Colorado can pull off the victory over USC, it would be an upset.

Nov. 18 | Bye

Nov. 25 | at Utah Utes | Win probability: 45%

A battle of the rocky mountain region’s best is a must-win for the Buffaloes and carries the same weight for the Utes. Both teams are on the bubble for a bowl berth with the Pac-12 in struggling, and will need an extra boost in the regular season finale. This contest is usually close and could swing either direction, but taking care of the ball will be key against Utah. If Colorado hits this point in the season with five wins, we could see a more determined team ready to go.