Colorado Buffaloes vs Texas A&M Aggies: A Statistical Preview

It's about time right? Yes, the Colorado Buffaloes do have a game this week against the Texas A&M Aggies. With Woodrow being out of town for the whole week battling the company who just bought our company (taking names and kicking a$$) and my fear of another disappointing Saturday, the statistical look was a little delayed. I promise you this is a good one, though. You won't believe your eyes at a chart after the jump. So make sure to check it out.

I have a dream that one day the Buffs will have more rankings in the top half of the Big 12 than the bottom half. But good news Buffs fans, Texas A&M has a Big 12 average ranking of 9.8 while the Buffs have an average Big 12 ranking of 8.8. Of course, averaging the rankings below equally without weight, probably means nothing but again, The Ralphie Report is searching. And yes, although it has been doom and gloom this week coming off the demoralizing loss to Missouri and being underdogs to Texas A&M, this Aggie team isn't Mizzou, Texas, Kansas, Florida State or West Virginia. They probably aren't even Kansas State who beat the Aggies by 14 They still lost to Arkansas State and struggled mightily against Army. But as you will see after the jump, these teams look to be going in opposite directions.

Conf	National	Actual	Category	Actual	National	Conf
Rank	Rank				Rank	Rank
11	92	122.13	Rushing Offense	112.75	101	12
12	93	179.5	Passing Offense	256.25	26	8
12	101	301.63	Total Offense	369	62	10
12	104	18.63	Scoring Offense	27.25	T-50	9
9	83	163.63	Rushing Defense	203	106	12
5	66	125.65	Pass Efficiency Defense	139.46	100	11
6	78	377.25	Total Defense	431.5	103	11
9	88	29.13	Scoring Defense	34.5	109	12
8	86	32.91	Net Punting	33.84	78	7
9	61	9.19	Punt Returns	6.78	83	10
8	41	22.45	Kickoff Returns	20.13	88	11
8	T-73	-0.25	Turnover Margin	-0.25	T-73	8
1	70	213.63	Pass Defense	228.5	84	3
12	85	113.42	Passing Efficiency	147.62	24	8
9	T-78	1.63	Sacks	1.38	91	11
8	82	5.25	Tackles For Loss	4.38	109	12
11	100	2.5	Sacks Allowed	2.75	110	12

The Texas A&M offense is what we hoped to have as CU fans for our Buff team. A unit full of youth that progressively gets better over a span of a season.  Texas A&M has had to rely on youth just like the Buffs have this year. Last week, A&M started 4 freshman on offense and their top sub, WR Ryan Tannehill, is a freshman as well. Freshmen and sophomores have made up 74 percent of A&M's total offense. After I heard that stat, I was curious what the Buffs were doing in that category of freshman and sophomore production and let me tell you it is mind blowing when you put numbers behind it:

More so than you probably thought possible, the Buffs are unbelievably reliant on underclassmen as shown by the bottom of the chart above. 99% of the rushing yards are  generated by freshmen and sophomores, mostly true freshman. 100% of the passing yards are generated by freshmen and sophomores meaning that 99.6% of the offense is started in freshmen and sophomore's hands. Now you look at receiving yards and 63.6% of those yards are produced by freshmen and sophomores. Doesn't this yield some perspective about this year? It is hard to win a lot of games when 99.6% of your offense is generated by freshmen and sophomores. This probably deserves its own thread.

But both of these offenses are going in different directions. Look at the chart below and see the differences between the Aggies offense in the first half of the season compared to the second half:

		Team Offense
		Rushing			Passing					Total Off.
Date	Opponent	No	Net	TD	Att	Comp	Int	Yds	TD	Plays	Yds
8/30/2008	Arkansas St.(14-18)	36	133	2	27	19	2	170	0	63	303
9/6/2008	New Mexico(28-22)	39	92	0	24	13	0	144	3	63	236
9/20/2008	Miami (Fla.)(23-41)	35	87	0	32	19	1	275	3	67	362
9/27/2008	Army(21-17)	29	133	0	19	13	1	157	2	48	290
10/4/2008	Oklahoma St.(28-56)	30	184	2	43	24	2	218	2	73	402
10/11/2008	Kansas St.(30-44)	33	125	2	41	29	0	419	2	74	544
10/18/2008	Texas Tech(25-43)	23	20	1	40	27	0	286	1	63	306
10/25/2008	Iowa St.(49-35)	35	128	3	39	31	0	381	4	74	509
Totals		260	902	10	265	175	6	2050	17	525	2952
1st Half of Season		34.8	111.3	0.5	25.5	16.0	1.0	186.5	2.0	60.3	297.8
2nd Half of Season		30.3	114.3	2.0	40.8	27.8	0.5	326.0	2.3	71.0	440.3

A&M has averaged 143 more yards of total in the last four games compared to the first four as shown by the bottom of the table above. Nearly 100% of the improvement is in the passing game. The Buffs currently have the #1 passing defense in the Big 12 and the Aggies have the #26 ranked passing offense so this will be the match-up of the game. Can the Buffs do what they did against Kansas State and Josh Freeman? This game is very similar to the Kansas State match-up. Kansas State and Texas A&M both have pedestrian rushing games and rather mediocre offensive lines. Both have hot-handed quarterbacks who are agile enough to make plays on the move. The Buffs should instill the same game plan against a pass dominated offense in Texas A&M as they did against Kansas State. Stop the run and go after Texas A&M QB Jerrod Johnson. The problem for the Buffs is RB Mike Goodson should be able to play against CU as he did not play against Iowa State last week. Personally, if the Buffs can stop Josh Freeman, I think they can stop Texas A&M's offense. The X factor is Mike Goodson who is much better than any running back Kansas State has. If Goodson gets going, then Texas A&M's offense becomes much more dangerous compared to the KState's offense.

	Team Defense
		Rushing			Passing					Total Off.
Opponent	Sacks	No	Net	TD	Att	Comp	Int	Yds	TD	Plays	Yds
Arkansas St.(14-18)	2	45	255	0	28	15	0	160	1	73	415
New Mexico(28-22)	1	38	216	3	38	22	2	154	0	76	370
Miami (Fla.)(23-41)	2	28	159	2	29	20	1	239	2	57	398
Army(21-17)	0	65	280	2	5	1	0	4	0	70	284
Oklahoma St.(28-56)	0	46	215	2	14	10	0	186	3	60	401
Kansas St.(30-44)	2	47	215	5	26	21	0	234	0	73	449
Texas Tech(25-43)	0	23	111	3	56	44	2	450	3	79	561
Iowa St.(49-35)	4	39	173	3	46	28	0	401	1	85	574
Totals	11	331	1624	20	242	161	5	1828	10	573	3452
1st Half of Season	1.3	44.0	227.5	1.8	25.0	14.5	0.8	139.3	0.8	69.0	366.8
2nd Half of Season	1.5	38.8	178.5	3.3	35.5	25.8	0.5	317.8	1.8	74.3	496.3

As for the Texas A&M defense, they are bad and they have been progressively getting worse as the Texas A&M offense has been getting better. A&M is allowing 180 more yards a game threw the air over the last four games compared to the first four, giving up a blistering 500 yards/contest. Young and slow is the way beergut from "I Am the 12th Man" would describe them. This stat from an earlier Buffs Bites should describe the Texas A&M defense in a nut shell:

Odd, but Texas A&M's defense allowing the Cyclones 35 points (and still winning) was a high-water mark: It was the lowest number the Aggies have allowed this season in Big 12 play. They entered the game yielding an average of 47.2 points in three previous conference games.

Texas A&M (3-5, 1-3) and Iowa State (2-6, 0-4) accounted for 1,083 yards in total offense, with the Cyclones out gaining the Aggies 574-509. First-year Aggies coach Mike Sherman called the game "very unique. I've never experienced a game like this in my life."

The Buffs need to get a lead early. Make Texas A&M's offense one dimensional like they forced Kansas State to do. I expect the Buffs idea of "simplifying" to be a heavy dose of QB Tyler Hansen and RB Rodney Stewart against the worst ranked rushing defense in the Big 12 and 103rd in the nation. This sounds like a broken record with all these bad defenses the Buffs have played. Its like the Big 12 is taunting us into thinking this is the week the Buffs' offense breaks out. Well if there was ever a week it would be this Saturday in College Station. Overall, the matchup looks rather even as the betting line predicts but being on the road is not friendly to the Buffs and Dan Hawkins, who has only 2 wins there in his three years as a Buffs coach and none this year. That is probably why the Aggies are favorites.