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How close were the Buffs to playing in the Pac 12 Championship Game tonight? A biased analysis

10 plays. That's how close they were. 10 plays. If you don't believe me, please read my unabashedly biased take on how changing 10 plays would have put the Buffs in the Pac 12 Championship game tonight vs. Oregon.

DISCLAIMER: This will be hard to rehash for Buff fans and will sound ludicrous to non-Buff fans, but this happens to be a safe place to post completely biased take on CU athletics. If you disagree, I'd love to hear about it in the comments.

To start, I couldn't sleep last night. So, I did what every long-suffering Buff football fan does and I thought about what could have been. One number kept sticking in my head as I thought about the 2014 season. -10. As in the Buffs' final turnover margin on the 2014 campaign. So I thought, what would have happened this year if that number had just been zero? Would the Buffs have made a bowl? Would they be considered successful on a national scale? If you could change 10 plays from the previous season, what plays would they be, and assuming everything else stayed the same, how would the outcome change? Here are the 10 plays I thought of, and then I have made some assumptions about the outcome of the games if they were changed.

In chronological order:

1) Michael Adkins fumble on the CU 9 yard line vs. ASU

After starting the game by giving up 17 points, the Buffs had just worked their way back into the game vs. ASU and found themselves with the ball down 17-14 with 4 minutes to go in the half. Perfect time to march down the field at the end of the half and go into the locker room tied or with a lead right? Wrong. We fumble on the first play, giving a first and goal to the Sun Devils. Sure enough they score and go into half up 24-14, then receive the second half kick and make it 31-14. We outgained the Sun Devils by 120 yards that night and had 10 more first downs. If we didn't fumble then, it would have made it a 1 score game with the ball in ASU territory in the 4th quarter which leads me to play #2 on the list.

2) Sefo Liufau interception at the ASU 40 vs. ASU

This one ended the game, but had the first TO not happened, and this one as well, we very well could have tied the game on this drive. Correct these first 2 plays and maybe we get a win.

Corrected Record: 3-9 (1-8)

3) Sefo Liufau interception at the CU 37 vs. Cal

With 3 minutes to play the Bears had just tied the game up on a ridiculous 75 yard TD, and we promptly go out and give them the ball in great field position. They score again and ultimately the Buffs tie the game and lose in double OT, and the game is remembered for the 3 missed FGs that allowed Cal back into the game. However, if we had kept the ball on this drive and given ourselves a chance to win it at the end, I believe it would have happened.

Corrected Record: 4-8 (2-7)

4) Kenneth Crawley Pass Interference at the CU 5 vs. Oregon State

Ken Crawley makes a great interception on an under-thrown Sean Mannion Pass but is flagged for pass interference. Oregon State goes on to score a touchdown to reach 30 points. Oregon State would score again to make it 36 (2-pt attempt failed) and the Buffs stall at 31 pts. Take 7 points off of Oregon State's score and what do you get? A CU victory.

Corrected Record: 5-7 (3-6)

5) Game clock expires on the Buffs at the UCLA 4 vs. UCLA

A huge error by the officiating crew lead to confusion among the offensive personnel as to whether the game clock was running or stopped as the Buffs line up with :13 left and first and goal to go. One ref signals the runner was down out of bounds, and then another ref overrules and signals that forward progress was stopped in bounds. Sefo is confused as the clock was stopped until the chains moved, and then fails to get a snap off before time expires in the half. MacIntyre tries desperately to tell Sefo to spike the ball, but because he can't go beyond the 25 yard line, Sefo doesn't get the message. At the very least CU should have had a chip-shot field goal attempt. Points would have mattered as the game ultimately goes into double OT and CU falls.

Corrected Record: 6-6 (4-5)

6) Philip Lindsay fumbles at the CU 46 vs. UW

The Buffs lead 23-17 midway through the 3rd quarter, and then Lindsay fumbles the ball near midfield. UW scores to take a 24-23 lead. Not too bad until we get to play #7.

7) Sefo Liufau interception at the CU 29 vs. UW

Two plays after giving up the lead, CU throws a pick-six to find themselves trailing 31-23. Take away these two plays and the Buffs would have been down 24-23 with the ball at the UW 9 in the fourth quarter with 2 minutes to go. (UW scored on a punt return later in the game) Easy field goal for a late 4th quarter lead. I believe the Buffs win.

Corrected Record: 7-5 (5-4)

8) Sefo Liufau fumble at the CU 22 vs. Arizona (returned for TD)

Leading 7-0 the Buffs have a chance to take a 2-score lead in the desert. Instead of finding an open receiver, Sefo fumbles while being sacked and the Wildcats take it back for a big momentum-shifter. CU lost by 18, so this play alone wouldn't change the outcome, see #9.

9) Sefo Liufau interception at the Arizona 45 vs. Arizona

With 2:30 to play in the half, the Buffs lead the Wildcats 17-14 and have a great chance to take a commanding halftime lead. Instead of hitting an open Bryce Bobo (I think he was the receiver) Sefo throws an interception that U of A ultimately would score a touchdown from. Arizona had 28 pts off turnovers, so you could have picked two other plays from this game, but I believe you take away 14 points from them and add 7 of our own or even two field goals, and CU could have won this game.

Corrected Record: 8-4 (6-3)

10) Sefo Liufau interception at the CU 20 vs. Utah (returned for TD)

This one should be fresh in your memories. Sefo telegraphs his target on a busted screen pass and the Utah defender takes lofted pass into the Buff endzone, flipping the score. CU was leading 34-31 at the time in the fourth quarter. Instead they trail 38-34, which happened to be the final score. If this pass just falls incomplete, I think the Buffs win.

Corrected Record: 9-3 (7-2)

Well, there you have it. At 7-2 in conference the Buffs would have had the best record in the Pac 12 South and would be facing the Oregon Ducks tonight in Santa Clara.

Now, I know you could look at 10 plays from every team's season and switch them and most teams would probably be in the playoff bracket, and that you can't assume that these plays happen in isolation. You can't simply change one play and expect the whole game to be played the exact same outside of that play. I know. That's not the point. The point is look at how close we freaking were to being successful beyond our wildest speculations at the beginning of the year!

Sigh. Until next year Buff faithful...

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