2011 NBA Draft Open Thread: Where is Alec Burks Headed?

Tonight, former Colorado Buffalo Alec Burks is expected to get his name called in the first twenty picks of the NBA draft. Burks will go down as one of the best players to ever wear a Buff uniform. Only playing two years at CU, he was 3rd all-time in scoring average at Colorado with 19.0 ppg, 7th in free throw percentage (.804) and holds the CU freshman (512) and sophomore (779) scoring records.

Burks is considered the be one of the best shooting guards in this year's draft due to his length and ability to get to the basket. His draft stock varies, though, from the 7th pick overall to out of the lottery at 20 which is a pretty far drop considering where he was expected to go when he announced for the draft. Below are some of the guesses out there from mock draft sources:

NBADraft.net - 13th pick overall, 10th best player in the draft, top ranked shooting guard in the draft
Draft Express - 20th pick overall, 14th in top 100 prospects, 4th in NCAA sophomores, 2nd in 2011 Wings
SBNation - 13th pick overall, Phoenix Suns
CBSSports.com - Ben Golliver - 10th pick overall, Milwaukee Bucks
CBSSports.com - Matt Moore - 7th pick overall, Sacramento Kings
CBSSports.com - Dave Del Grande - 11th pick overall, Golden State Warriors
Sporting News - 10th pick overall, Milwaukee Bucks
USAToday.com - 11th pick overall, Golden State Warriors
NBA.com - 9th overall, Charlotte Bobcats
FoxSportsOhio - 10th overall, Milwaukee Bucks

The overall feeling is the Milwaukee Bucks will take a shooting guard at 10 subject to a trade. The big question is whether the Bucks want a true perimeter shooting guard like Washington State's Klay Thompson, who is a better shooter than Burks but probably not as good of an overall scorer. If the Bucks select Thompson, the Warriors are an option at 11 and the Suns at 13 for Burks.

The best article I have read regarding the "who is the best shooting guard in the draft" debate is from Peter Newmann and Dean Oliver at ESPN.com. First they break down points per possession where Burks was the most efficient scorer:

Burks generated 120 points per 100 possessions as a freshman, while Thompson contributed 95. Both used 32 percent of their team's possessions this past season, but Burks produced 118 points per 100 possessions while Thompson produced 109.

Newmann and Oliver gave Burks the head to head nod in 5 of the 6 categories they ranked the two on (age, scoring efficiency, ability to get to the free throw line, rebounding rate and turnover rate while Thompson was considered a better three point shooter). Most important to the comparison, I believe, is the last statement:

Overall, Burks shows more to his game that will get him through down shooting days. This is not to say Thompson won't be a good player. He deserves to be in the league, but he won't be the kind of player who will shoot efficiently enough to help a good team, except off the bench.

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