Last week: 2-1-1
Season record: 19-13
Only two games this week, as I just couldn't find two other games I liked. It's a relatively slow week for college football, but this is the last one until the end of the season.
All lines according to OddsShark as of 2:00 p.m., on 11/16
Kansas St. Wildcats at Texas Longhorns (-9.5)
This may be the single biggest WTF line of the year. Kansas State has owned the Longhorns lately and this year, unlike any others recently, the Wildcats actually seem to be legitimately better. Texas has had a flood of injuries at the running back position and has gone back to the quarterback shuffle between David Ash and Colt McCoy due to the ineffectiveness of both. Bill Snyder's crew on the other hand is having a fantastic season and was very close to taking down Oklahoma State in Stillwater. People would have been rather shocked even if the line had stayed at the -7 number that it opened at (most people I spoke to expected this to be anywhere between -1 and -3.5), but it has moved all the way to 9.5 and the first two points of movement occurred within an hour of posting. Even with 99% (!) of the money coming in on the Wildcats, it still moved the other half point on Monday. I don't have a clue what's causing the confidence in Texas from the sharps outside of the quality of the Longhorn defense but I'm not going to ignore signs that blatant. Texas it is.
The pick - Texas -9.5
Clemson Tigers at N.C. State Wolfpack (+7.5)
N.C. State, coming off a shut out victory over the Tar Heels, laid an egg at Chestnut Hill and fell to a terrible Boston College team on Saturday. Clemson squeezed by a much improved Wake Forest team to stay at one loss. The Tigers have already locked up the Atlantic division and will get caught looking ahead to the Gamecocks as the Wolfpack keep this one close. 94% of the money rests with Clemson but the number has come all the way down from ten.
The pick - NC State +7.5
What games do you like this week?