Last week: 2-2
Season record: 7-5
All lines according to OddsShark as of 10:00 a.m., on 10/6
Florida St. Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+10)
I don't understand this one at all. Granted Wake Forest is an epic comeback by Syracuse away from being 4-0, but their three wins have come NC State, Gardner-Webb and Boston College, none of them were very impressive. But there's a reason why Vegas ALWAYS wins. When there is a tell this big, you have to roll with the house. The line started at Florida State -13 and over 90% of the money has been on the Seminoles the entire time, yet the spread moves a full three points the other way? I don't know why, but the sharps love the Demon Deacons, which means so do we.
The pick - Wake Forest +10
Iowa St. Cyclones at Baylor Bears (-15)
The Kansas State loss exposed the Bears defense once again as a unit that can't stop anyone. It won't matter this week as an Iowa State team reeling from a home blowout to Texas won't be able to put up nearly enough points to keep up with RG3 and the Bears and they certainly won't be able to hold the Bears below their season average. Thee line kept climbing until it (when sharp money brought it back down) so make sure you don't take it any higher than 15.5.
The pick - Baylor -15
Missouri Tigers (-3) at Kansas St. Wildcats
The line hasn't moved much since opening at Missouri -2 and then money is split pretty evenly here so can evaluate the teams themselves more than we can in circumstances like the one above. For me, this is a classic case of onet team being slightly underrated and the other being slightly overrated, which creates the value in the spread. I think the Tigers are a damn good team and they win this one by 10-17.
The pick - Missouri -3
TCU Horned Frogs at San Diego St. Aztecs (+4)
The Aztecs and quarterback Ryan Lindley are going to have a field day at home against new Big 12 member TCU. About 2/3's of the money is on the Horned Frogs and the line has slowly moved the other way. Classic case of public perception influencing the line as this should be right around a pick em. Take SDSU anywhere over 3.
The pick - San Diego State +4
P.S. - I love Arizona as well, but I won't break my rule....