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Game Preview: Colorado Buffaloes vs Hawaii Warriors

Has it only been a week since the Cal game? It feels like it's been a month.

Anyway, on to tomorrows game. The Warriors come to town after having spent the week in Las Vegas. On the surface, this sounds pretty good for the Buffs, but it actually makes life a lot easier on the Hawaii players. It cuts their travel-time way down, and they get to practice in a similarly dry climate for a week in preparation for playing in Boulder.

We play a team that is also 1-1, though they are a much more impressive 1-1 than we are. Their win at Army was clutch, and they put up nearly 600 yards on USC in their loss. Hawaii is a solid team. A solid WAC team, yes, but they are a solid team. This should be a very exciting game.

See my analysis after the jump.

Star-divide

On Defense:

We are about to face one of the most impressive Quarterbacks in the country. No joke. Bryant Moniz is great on the run, and he has an incredible arm. Seriously, he can hit just about any spot on the field. He is the perfect guy to captain a Run-n-Shoot offense. We will need to both put some pressure on Moniz, to take some air out of the Hawaii Offense, and keep an eye on him because of his running abilities. But fortunately, he's really their only running threat. They don't call a lot of rushes. We will have to deal with a talented group of Wide Receivers in Pilares, Pollard, Salas and Bradley. Salas is one of the best Slot Receivers around, and all of those guys can get separation. This will be a tough test for our Secondary, especially for a guy like Paul Vigo, who will log a bunch of snaps tomorrow. It helps that we've got a bunch of speed in the Defensive Backfield and rangy Linebackers. I expect both Michael Sipili and Jon Major to make a big impact. They both have pretty good speed, and that will limit Moniz's feet, and I expect them to blitz quite a bit. Our D-line will be playing against a pretty good Offensive Line, but I think our Defensive Tackles will have a good day.

Overall, I expect us to give up quite a few yards. I think we actually have some luck keeping the Warriors out of the endzone tomorrow. I also think our Defense gets a little help from the rest of the team this week. And the Warriors throw the ball so much, I think we get a few turnovers this week.

Matchups I'm Watching:

Greg Salas vs. Paul Vigo & the Colorado Safeties

-Salas had 1,600 yards last season. He is good. He will make some catches tomorrow. All we can hope is that Vigo, Polk and Perkins can limit his big plays. If they can keep Salas in front of them, Hawaii's Offense will be easier to handle. It will not be easy. Salas is a crafty Senior with much more experience than the guys who will be covering him.

Hawaii Skill Players vs. Jon Major in coverage

-Major did not play badly against Cal, but everyone is going to remember the TD reception he gave up to Shane Vereen (who is very good). Major will be forced to cover guys again this week, but I think he rises to the occasion. He is the man, and he is going to get better each week.

Run-n-Shoot vs. Colorado Nickel

-Notice a trend here? Yes, these are all about our abilities in coverage. Well, Hawaii is averaging 400 passing yards a game, and they would prefer to be averaging quite a bit more than that. Their Wide Receivers can run, and Moniz can hit them anywhere on the field. He has a rocket arm and is pretty darn accurate.

On Offense:

If there is a place and time for our Offense to get back on track, it is tomorrow against the Warriors. They have a Defense that plays hard, but is one that we can exploit in places. USC had a lot of success passing against their Corners and Safeties. USC has some impressive talent at Wide Receiver, but so (theoretically) do we. Our Receivers got open last week, but Hansen didn't have time to hit them. This week, the Receivers should get open again, but Hansen should have the time to get the ball downfield. On the outside, these guys are primed for a huge game. I still believe that we have one of the better Wide Receiver corps around. If you watch film from last week (but don't, because the game is too painful), guys were open all over the field. Not just one guy on each play, but two and three.

We will see another change along the O-line, with Adkins stepping back into the starting spot at Left Guard and Mike Iltis will start at Center over Keenan Stevens. They should have a solid game against the Warriors. Maybe not in the run game, but they'll have a better time in pass protection. Hawaii's Defense plays hard, but they definitely don't have the same caliber athletes as Cal did. Hopefully they figure out how to start getting a push in the run game, because it would be nice to take time off the clock and keep the Hawaii Offense on the sideline.

Matchups I'm Watching:

Hansen vs. the CU Offensive Line.

-Wait, David, why is this a matchup between two elements of the same team? Well, that was one of the biggest problems with the game last week. Hansen didn't have time and couldn't get comfortable. If the O-line doesn't get in Hansen's way, our Offense can explode. Hansen is no Matt Barkley (4 TDs against Hawaii in week one), but he can have some success.

Ryan Deehan vs. Eric Kiseau

-Almost comically, Deehan is still listed on the John Mackey award watch list. He has been under-utilized in the passing game (I don't count the receptions in the fourth quarter against Cal). He has been used as an extra blocker (only partly effectively), but I can see them going to Deehan more tomorrow. He has good hands, and I think Hawaii will play a bunch of deep coverage against us. I'm not sure they felt they had a chance againt USC, but we present a good opportunity for a win for them. I think they try to limit big plays to our Wide Receivers, giving Deehan opportunities underneath.

CU vs. itself

-Hey, another theme. The Buffs beat themselves on offense last week against Cal. Mistakes, penalties and poor play. Cutting down on each of those things will make a huge difference.

CU Performance:

Colorado wins. It will be an exciting game, and it should be high scoring, but I think they find a way to put a few more points on the board than Hawaii does. It won't be a resounding win, but being back at home will make a difference for the Buffs. I think our Receivers finally get the chance to shine, and Hansen bounces back with a solid game. I also think Rodney Stewart will finally hit 100 yards, as Kiseau will try to keep Hawaii's powerful Offense off the field. Justin Torres may also get more carries early. I think they try to work him in more before we face teams like Georgia. My prediction? CU 44 - UH 37.

Poll
Colorado comes out of this game with:
A resounding win and some confidence
35 votes
A win, but quite a few questions still unanswered
109 votes
A loss, as terror slowly sets in
159 votes
A really bad loss, and we find out who our interim HC will be
100 votes

403 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 56 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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44 points?

 for a team that is 108 in the country in scoring?

Hope you are right but I’m not sure the offense can get out of its own way.

by NYCskibum on Sep 17, 2010 8:17 AM MDT reply actions  

Does anyone think we will cover?

I’ve started to come around after the Cal game a bit, I guess Hawaii has been living on the road for 2 weeks and we will have a good chance at home. Favored by 10 pts is a little too much though. This game is on the Buffs to limit turnovers and penalties. If it’s a high scoring game Buffs will lose. I dunno, I hope I’m wrong, if Hawaii scores 37 points I think they are going to win though.

twitter.com/skitalicious
Quitter's People United Member #13

by runningdonut on Sep 17, 2010 8:27 AM MDT reply actions  

CU line has moved to 12.5 even though almost 70% of the money is Hawaii.

That means the sharps are putting huge money on CU. Vegas knows best. I am now confident that we are going to beat them bad.

The Ralphie Report - University of Colorado Athletics
SB Nation Denver

by Jon Woods on Sep 17, 2010 8:39 AM MDT up reply actions  

If you don't mind me asking

What else are you looking at this weekend

Iowa/Arizona line is down to a Pick’em…ouch

by NYCskibum on Sep 17, 2010 8:47 AM MDT up reply actions  

-1 Arizona where I've checked

Same story there as with CU. 80% of the public money yet the line swung two points the other way overnight. This is one of those “stat history” games for Vegas.

I haven’t looked at much outside of that one yet. But I’ll post what I play in here this afternoon.

The Ralphie Report - University of Colorado Athletics
SB Nation Denver

by Jon Woods on Sep 17, 2010 8:51 AM MDT up reply actions  

great, make me feel worse at Iowa -1.5

A lot of weird line movements

USC went from -15 to -12.5 against a team that just loss to a IAA squad

Other ones:
UConn -6.5
Nebraska -4.5
Navy -4
Army -5
and because I’m a degenerate
Cal -3

by NYCskibum on Sep 17, 2010 8:57 AM MDT up reply actions  

took Cal -2.5

Georgia -2
ECU +20
Air Force +16.5
Baylor +21

CU is now -13.5

"No I will not grill you a cheese!" ~Malory Archer

by Phil Fraser on Sep 17, 2010 7:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

everyone should pick the opposite of these

I’m getting killed so far this year. Just pick the opposite of me and you’ll clean up.

"No I will not grill you a cheese!" ~Malory Archer

by Phil Fraser on Sep 18, 2010 7:21 AM MDT up reply actions  

hawaii's D is terrible

i expect colorado to put points on us tomorrow. i just hope our offense can outscore CU. it’ll come down to turnovers. whoever has more possessions wins.

the 10-12.5 line is a little scary. ill probably play the over.

let's go nuggets! who u wit?

by 808inDenver on Sep 17, 2010 8:41 AM MDT reply actions  

That should not be a problem as our offense is horrible

We barely managed 24 points against a horrible CSU team that got whipped by Nevada, I ouldn’t have much fear of CU putting up more than 20 points.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman

by Broncoman on Sep 17, 2010 12:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

Here's my take

I do think this team is better than last year and last year we rebounded after Toledo, even if our record didn’t show it. Even though we were 3-9 last year, we never quit. So, I expect a decent performance from CU tomorrow, and given that it’s at home, we may even win. Our defensive line should create pressure and cause some turnovers, which will help out our offense. Trying to stay positive here, I say we win 35-21. In fact, I would be very pleased if we score 35 points and win by two TDs. Which is sad because Hawaii is a WAC team and we’re playing at home.

Dan Hawkins can suck it. When’s Mac coming back?

by BuffulanceMan on Sep 17, 2010 9:45 AM MDT reply actions  

If we get behind even a little, its over.

Wheels come off the program tomorrow if we don’t dominate early. I’m concerned their QB will start lighting us up and suddenly he’s a new big name passer in college football along the lines of Kingsbury and all the other recent TT QB’s.

We should score some points here and most likely win the game in a non-convincing manner. However, as I said, If I’m wrong… season is done and the program blows up.

what is McCartneys phone number?

by BuffnBigD on Sep 17, 2010 10:00 AM MDT reply actions  

Hawaii got worked by USC who almost lost to UVA last week. Buffs should win. Let’s go!

"Where do you go from here, Dion?" "I go to Toronto."
Spreading that Calgary Flames, Montreal Expos, The U, and Orlando Magic love.

by KingJafi on Sep 17, 2010 10:03 AM MDT reply actions  

I wish I could share the optimism here...

I have a bad feeling were going to get embarrassed again.

魏 多福
-:Broncos season ticket holder:-

by Gr3yStreet on Sep 17, 2010 10:04 AM MDT reply actions  

here ya...

Its also a no-win game for us in the theoretic sense too. Win- and all we get is that we beat a low quality team and build zero confidence (a la CSU). Lose- well we all know what happens then too.

by BuffnBigD on Sep 17, 2010 10:14 AM MDT up reply actions  

I hate to say it but a loss could be the best long term outcome

The sooner the inevitable happens the better. Then the search that is hopefully being quietly conducted could be done in the open.

by admill on Sep 17, 2010 10:45 AM MDT up reply actions  

amen

Denver Johnson shouldn’t be allowed to coach anything but a power puff game. Absolutely no ability to develop talent.

by clbuff28 on Sep 18, 2010 7:06 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

other way around...sorry buddy

Hawaii first of all is not a low qaulity team…(12 point loss to usc after putting up 588 on them…7 bowl games and 10 wins over ranked opponents , and a bcs bowl game in the last ten years)If Hawaii beats colorado tommorow sorry to say it wont be much of a boost to hawaiis credentials sense colorado is the lower qaulity team…….and as far as being ashamed because you might lose to a wac school….Boise speaks for it self ….Hawaii as won the only meeting between these two …fresno just beat the big east leader ….nevada just demolished a team in a way that colorado couldnt…so please enough with the WAC school crap…the WAC has had two BCS busters, and many victorys over ranked teams that colorado has not beaten….GO WARRIORS

by 808STATEWAR on Sep 17, 2010 1:37 PM MDT up reply actions  

how far we have fallen

Getting smack talk from Hawaii- and he make good points……

Sad.

by BuffnBigD on Sep 17, 2010 1:44 PM MDT up reply actions  

If CU had WAC-level academic requirements

It sure would be a lot easier to turn this program around again.

by highlandsbuff on Sep 17, 2010 3:03 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thank you sir, may I have another!

All I can say, is good luck with the WAC seeing how all of the good schools bolted to the MWC.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman

by Broncoman on Sep 17, 2010 4:02 PM MDT up reply actions  

What I want...

Someone with a proven track record of:

(a) ability to recruit
(b) ability to motivate/lead
© ability to make solid gameday adjustments
© is likely to hire assistant coaches who know how to coach the proper technique and develop the correct scheme for each position, given the players that we have

Is that so hard to find?

JUST GET RID OF DAN “SNAKE OIL SALESMAN” HAWKINS

by BuffulanceMan on Sep 17, 2010 10:44 AM MDT reply actions  

hahahahaha!

yes, yes it is that hard.

Hawkins is the 11th highest paid coach in the Big 12. There’s no reason to believe that won’t continue in the Pac 12. Colorado has a state law that limits multi year contracts for public institutions, so we can’t offer multi year contracts to assistants. Any good coach will run for more security at the first chance. And coaches with a proven track record of recruiting, motivating, and making proper adjustments are out of CU’s price range. At best, we get a guy with the POTENTIAL to do those things, or the proven track record of maybe 2 of those things.

"No I will not grill you a cheese!" ~Malory Archer

by Phil Fraser on Sep 17, 2010 7:30 PM MDT up reply actions  

it was the the daily camera yesterday

Plati took an awfully aggressive tone in the article yesterday which I found pretty unprofessional. I’ve decided the entire athletic department is just clueless.

by NYCskibum on Sep 17, 2010 11:14 AM MDT up reply actions  

Dave “stats dork” Plati can’t afford to take an aggressive attitude towards anyone. Have you seen that guy?

I agree, the whole department is clueless. There isn’t any way in the world that this guy gets anything out of them.

by AllBroncsallday on Sep 17, 2010 2:59 PM MDT up reply actions  

i emailed him

my disappointment over his comments as a representative of the university. He sent back an apology but then threw in some shot at the end about how he heard the student was more of a Michigan fan anyway and didn’t show up to the game until the third quarter anyway……..

Talk about a guy and staff that just doesn’t get it

by NYCskibum on Sep 17, 2010 3:21 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’d imagine they’re feeling pretty besieged at this point, but a guy like Plati just needs to keep his mouth shut about this kind of stuff. I appreciate the loyalty to the school and all, but the only time Plati should be quoted is over a matter of how many times the school has beaten Alabama or the like.

by AllBroncsallday on Sep 18, 2010 9:35 AM MDT up reply actions  

I tried that last year after the Toledo game.

Some Ducks fan did this last year after BSU rolled them on the Smurf turf and Chip Kelly actually wrote the guy a personal check. In the same spirit, I emailed the CU AD right after the Toledo game but received no response. Speaking of Toledo, I still have not been able to shake that one off, having dragged 12 people with me to the game Thankfully I was able to attend a fantastic ND v. Mich game in Ann Arbor the next day to help me forget about it. CSU and Toledo in person within 5 days has left a scar.

by we don't live in lincoln on Sep 17, 2010 1:55 PM MDT up reply actions  

He wasn't serious about getting money back

He just wanted to bring his dissatisfaction to the media.

And obviously it worked. The fact that Plati had to respond to it confirms that.

by BuffsCrock on Sep 17, 2010 3:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

44?

Only once in the Talkins regime (2007, CU 65 NEB 51) has his team scored 44 or more. Do you really think this team that only put 24 on a terrible, terrible, terrible CSU team, is going to score 20 more against HI?

Seems pretty unlikely to me, but I guess we’ll see.

Thanks for the post.

by AllBroncsallday on Sep 17, 2010 3:07 PM MDT reply actions  

You know, I think that’s one of those damned if you do, damned if you don’t things. You want to stay positive as a player, so you try to buy in. But then, there are the results, and you ask yourself “what was I thinking?”.

I feel badly for the kids having swallowed the tale of a snake-oil salesman in the first place. It’s hard for me to imagine that they’re feeling too good about that choice.

by AllBroncsallday on Sep 18, 2010 9:29 AM MDT up reply actions  

I'll be really surprised if Vigo is matched consistently against Salas

Nickelback doesn’t necessarily mean slot receiver duty.

"No I will not grill you a cheese!" ~Malory Archer

by Phil Fraser on Sep 17, 2010 7:41 PM MDT reply actions  

How good

are we? the team that kicked the crap out of us getting blown out in the ESPN2.

OMG

How good are we, really?

by cnbuff410 on Sep 17, 2010 9:09 PM MDT reply actions  

hate to say I told ya so (since some people here put money on cal)

but I told ya so! I had a gut feeling that Cal wasn’t any good and that Nevada was the play here. It just emphasizes that we played one of the worst games ever played last week. Kaepernick is fun to watch, he’s a helluva player.

by nebraskasux on Sep 17, 2010 11:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

sorry man...

so what do we know now? CSU’s defense is god awful, Cal’s defense is awful. We couldn’t move the ball effectively on those two teams. We know that Hawaii’s D isn’t very good, but can we score 44 points on them? I don’t know, doesn’t look very likely to me…

by nebraskasux on Sep 17, 2010 11:43 PM MDT up reply actions  

How bad is it

When you can’t get excited to lose the girlfriend, go tailgate, drink beer with friends and watch football on a Saturday in Boulder. Thanks Hawkins. You’re killing me smalls.

by clbuff28 on Sep 18, 2010 7:16 AM MDT via mobile reply actions  

thanks for the advice guys

Are we still on for the AA meeting Tuesday?

by clbuff28 on Sep 18, 2010 8:09 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

thanks for the advice guys

Are we still on for the AA meeting Tuesday?

by clbuff28 on Sep 18, 2010 8:09 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

Mos def

Kegger after the meeting

by fluffybuff on Sep 18, 2010 8:44 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

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