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Hits & Myths: CU vs Wyoming, and Here Comes OCTOBERTEST



It's about time... that Hits & Myths 3 shows up. A second refurb computer, several software re-installs and a few new passwords later, here are some thoughts about the last game & suggestions about the next one.

CU 24, Wyoming 0 It was sooooo good to see a win, and so great to see the defense rebound so dramatically. I'm really happy for the team; they needed this shot in the arm for the confidence that will be sorely needed in what looks to be a challenging October.

It is now the first (half-)week of what I'm calling "Octobertest" , which starts with yet another game on national television, as the (New?)CU Buffs take on the Mountaineers in the WV. Almost nobody expects the Buffs to win in Morgantown, but September proved once again that very surprising things happen every week in the 21st century version of college football. The Buffs have been at the wrong end of the surprise twice this season, so why not the right end this Thursday? But first...

 

THE HITS

1) Defense Simplified produces 1st Shutout in 2 Years - The stats only start to tell the story about the tremendous effort by a well-coached Colorado defense.  Zero 3rd or 4th down conversions allowed for three quarters; seven tackles for losses including four sacks; 76 rushing yards allowed; 2 red-zone shutouts; and zero points allowed. This against a team that held its own against Texas in the first half.  A tip of the cap to Ron Collins for one of the most dramatic one-week defensive turnarounds in CU's history.  It was especially great to see so many seasoned cornerbacks on the field at once.  Besides the usual stellar play of Chapelle Brown and Jimmy Smith, Ben Burney and Jalil Brown played lights out, with J Brown using his special teams experience to do his best Ryan Walters impersonation.  Jon Major made a stellar debut with four tackles in a half (& was falsely accused of an out-of-bounds hit). The whole defensive team gave their all for all four quarters, and it was a beautiful thing to watch.

Star-divide

2) Rodney Stewart goes over 100 yards  -  It's great to see the Buffs get a 100-yd rushing performance again, & it makes sense that it would be Speedy who got it done.  It helped a lot that the Buffs weren't playing catch up, that there was balance with the passing game, and that both happened largely because the defense gave the offense so many opportunities.  But mostly it was because Speedy got a lot of carries and got into a rhythm.  If this is Speedy at about the 80% he claims he's at, just imagine him at 100% after almost two weeks rest.

3) Steady Scotty McKnight  -  The most underrated player on the team was again the leading receiver, and remains the go-to guy on 3rd downs.  Amidst all of the fan demand(mine included) to see our big new receivers get more passes thrown their way, we often overlook the fact that we have one of the best receivers, and perhaps the best possession receiver, in the Big 12 right here in Boulder.  I say that with confidence when you consider that everybody on the opposition's defense knows Scotty is Cody Hawkins' favorite target and is the most experienced receiver on the team, and yet he still finds a way to get open, especially when his team needs him the most.  And the team really needed him on the first drive of the Wyoming game, when he pounced on a CU fumble and scored the first TD.  Nobody works harder or performs better at his position than McKnight, & thus nobody deserves more the CU receving records he will have by the time he finishes his senior year with Colorado.  Which leads right in to...

THE MYTHS

1) Coach Kiesau should have tried to get our big wide receivers the ball every chance he got. -  We all would like to see Simas, Simmons and Wright get the ball more, considering that when they do, it's usually for a long gain.  In fact, there was a long pass to Marques Simas on the very first drive that resulted in a pass interference call, which was the key play in what turned out to be CU's first 1st-half TD of the season.  At least one other pass was thrown Simas' way, and one was thrown to Anthony Wright as well.  There certainly could have been more, and there will need to be more as we get into the Big XII schedule.  However, you don't want to take too much away from your ground game when it is successful.  Additionally, I'd much rather see the ball distributed to several different wide receivers, tight ends and running backs, as that usually is the sign of a successful passing offense.  Against Wyoming, CU spread their passes to eight different players.  That's not a bad thing.

2) We now have our starting running back in Speedy Stewart.  -  As well as Rodney Stewart did against Wyoming, I wouldn't be surprised to see Demetrius Sumler starting again.  One reason is that the coaches have made it clear even after the Wyoming game that they don't mind the running-back-by-committee approach with their stable of four capable backs.  Another is that Sumler did well against Wyoming, too, with a greater yards per carry average(4.6 vs 4.0) in his 8 carries than Speedy.  And it's hard to keep a healthy Darrell Scott or Brian Lockridge off the field, given their performances this season when they got the chance to touch the ball.  Expect CU to continue to play all four backs, and give more reps to the hot hand.  The coaches might want to note when choosing a starter that the usually reliable Sumler did cough up the football on what could have been a disastrous first drive.

3) Things have changed.  -  Not by a longshot.  A convincing win against Wyoming was a breath of fresh air in a disappointing September.  Now comes Octobertest, a challenge for even a 3-0 CU team, and a steeper climb for a 1-2 team.  Certainly things seem to have changed for the defense, and the fact that there is so much youth on the team bodes well for the rest of the season, as they, along with the coaching staff, seem to be learning quickly.  The offense is still a work in progress, as evidenced by the multiple O-line line-ups from one game to the next.  The good news on that front is that everyone is healthy and ready to contribute, including Max Tuioti-Mariner, a starter last year at the constantly-shifting guard position.  They and the new wide receivers will need to grow up in a hurry, as the Big XII looms, where every team CU faces in 2009 is scoring in big chunks so far this season.

THE FIXES

1) Involve all of your wide receivers this week.  -  With plenty of practice time since Wyoming, the "bigs" should be up to speed.  If they're not mostly there by Thursday, there's nobody to blame but the coaches.  Maybe some simplification might work there as well.  Despite what I said above about spreading it around, there should be more than three wide receivers with catches, and there should be more than three passes thrown to the "bigs" during the course of a game as "big" as this one.  I love the reliability of McKnight and Espinosa, but if they continue to get half of Hawkins' throws, defenses will eventually catch on.

2) Don't buy in completely to Running-Back-by-Committee.  -  It's true; we have a talented bunch of running backs, any of whom can contribute greatly towards a successful running game.  However, there are at least three things to consider before abandoning the idea of narrowing the carries to one or two primary backs.  One is that you wont know who can handle 20-35 carries a game until they get the chance to do it.  Stewart has had his chance and done well with it(& DON'T take this as a suggestion that Stewart is NOT the man to continue to get the same 32 carries he got against Wyoming), but I'd like to see Scott and maybe even Lockridge get the chance if they have the hot hand in any given game.  The second thing is that Scott and Sumler, having the more physical builds, are more likely to be able to consistently handle a large number of carries.  Third, a number of teams have been very successful with the "thunder & lightning" approach - a hard, pounding, physical back for a quarter or a half followed by a lightning-quick, hard-to-find back for the next quarter or half.  Whatever the method, we need to have the running game ramped up to a high level, and, frankly, it will probably have a lot more to do with the O-line.  Nevertheless, the O-line feeds off a running back who is reeling off long gains.  Let's use the ones that can take it to the house.

3) Go for broke but reduce mistakes.  -  Almost nobody outside of the CU locker room thinks the Buffs can win an away game against West Virginia, so why not go for broke, try some wild things, and remember that this is the last game heading into the brutal Big XII.  Regardless of the outcome, CU still has everything ahead of them to achieve their goals.  But while they're going all-out, they need to limit the mistakes, which means playing much better than they did against Wyoming, especially on offense.  Four fumbles and four mistakes on delays of game wont cut it.  The Mountaineers coach and QB are mistake-prone, so take advantage of their mistakes, avoid your own, and you might just steal one.  Heaven knows, the Buffs need to learn how to win on the road(last road win was in 2007) to be a success in the Big XII.  GO BUFFS!!!

P.S.  Coach Hawkins, I love ya, and I love your fire, but the next time your team wins, act like you've been there before.  I'm not a member of the media, really, and some of those who are  members irritate me, too, but that's no reason to stoop to semi-personal attacks on their life experiences and situations.  Just because many of them are young doesn't mean they don't have families, too, and probably all of them have been challenged in life one way or another and have mostly succeeded.  I really don't mind some of these guys being taken to task now and then for their all-too-frequent diatribes against college kids.  Nevertheless, your anti-media comments would be easier to put up with if you had just pulled a major upset.  Beating Wyoming in your own stadium for your first win in 10 months doesn't qualify.  Watch your kids' backs, but keep it professional.  TM

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I really despise

the euphemism “its a long season” coming from programs that lose early, like us. No, the season is short, especailly when you don’t get to a bowl game. Its the off season that is long.

Hockey, now THATS a long season……

by BuffnBigD on Sep 29, 2009 7:06 PM MDT reply actions  

I love this post every week

great recap. I agree mostly with your fixes mostly around “holding nothing back this week.” It is time to roll everything out and take your shots this week. This is a must win if the Buffs want to get back in bowl contention. Feed your playmakers the ball as much as you can and capitalize on West Virginia’s coaching staff and turnovers…

The Ralphie Report - Go Buffs!...All Colorado Buffaloes on SBNation - http://www.ralphiereport.com/

by Bob_Bell on Sep 29, 2009 7:26 PM MDT reply actions  

Absolutely

Agree with Irish this is a really good analysis and I thinks it’s spot on. Yes, Hawkins needs to act like he’s been in the win column before, Stick to talking football, keeping the program moving in the right direction, and making improvements. Don’t attack the media (even though they deserve it sometimes) its not in your best interest.

by BuffnBigD on Sep 29, 2009 7:45 PM MDT up reply actions  

You're both too kind.

It’s really great to know that somebody reads this stuff. Irish, I look forward to your columns every day. This site is the best. Go Buffs!!!

Tom4Buffs
"Wear Black &/or Gold only,show up early,stand up & get loud,stay til it's over!"

by Tom Moe on Sep 29, 2009 8:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

does not compute

Myth- didn’t go to the vertical passing enough. Fix- go to the vertical passing game more in practice, go for broke but reduce mistakes. That’s obviously over simplifying by paraphrasing, but I think you’re oversimplifying by generalization. Practice reps can’t simulate game reps. They can’t. For proof, ask Simas who was apparently a practice superstar. We were up by 4 scores, and we needed some reps to get the vertical passing game in rhythm. The defense was suffocating (even though Wyoming might have supplied their own practice bag). We should have used the latter third of the game to do that. We didn’t. The problem with the passing game isn’t WHO gets targeted, it’s the ROUTES that get targeted. And our passing game as is is guaranteed to not stretch the field, not make defenses cover the whole field, and ultimately not score enough points to win. We had a golden opportunity to run a more diverse offense in a game situation, and we didn’t take advantage of it. If HawkSpawn comes out chucking the ball all over the field against WVU and forces both safeties to play deep which opens up the front for the running game, then I’ll apologize, but nothing in the last 4 years suggests that to be the case.

Utilizing running back depth= good. Running back by committee= bad. The differences between your 2 arguments is far too subtle. I’m a firm believer that part of the problem with USC is the fact that they can’t decide on 2 running backs to carry the load. Running backs thrive on rhythm. They need to see the offensive line repeatedly face off against a defensive front in order to read the right holes quickly. Rotating 4 backs in ensures each will come in cold and not be as effective as 1 or 2 would be. But opening up the rotation and hoping for the hot hand ensures mediocrity. No one gets a chance to get in rhythm. It’s almost a crap shoot as to who ends up with the “hot hand.” And that says nothing of the practice reps. Give the ball to Scott. Change up with Stewart. Get Lockridge his touches in the slot and in the return game. And make Sumler the steady backup. There was a lot of sentiment that Cody should make way for Hansen because he was a good soldier and potential stellar backup. Sumler is the Cody of running backs.

Heavy is the head that eats the crayons

by Hallux Valgus on Sep 29, 2009 8:08 PM MDT reply actions  

also don't agree with this:

“…the usual stellar play of Chapelle Brown and Jimmy Smith”
we were told they would be stellar going into the season. They have not been. Not even remotely.

Heavy is the head that eats the crayons

by Hallux Valgus on Sep 29, 2009 8:14 PM MDT reply actions  

I think Ben Burney and Jalil Brown have had the most problems at corner this year

Jimmy has been pretty good in my estimation. We will get a better look the next three weeks. Need a pass rush to make them all look better, that is for sure.

The Ralphie Report - Go Buffs!...All Colorado Buffaloes on SBNation - http://www.ralphiereport.com/

by Bob_Bell on Sep 29, 2009 8:45 PM MDT up reply actions  

they've definitely been BIGGER problems

but by no means have Chapelle or Smith been solutions. And obviously we need a pass rush. But “stellar” to me means that Smith needs to actually catch the passes thrown directly to him (for starters). Stellar means playmaker. And our corners have not been that.

Heavy is the head that eats the crayons

by Hallux Valgus on Sep 29, 2009 8:48 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good points all, except for your evaluation of C Brown & J Smith

I do make too fine a point, sometimes, but subtlety is sometimes the only way to distinguish one’s points from everybody else’s. It’s always good to get a dialogue going. To that point…

1. There’s no question that practice reps don’t equal game reps, but what else can you do with two weeks of practice? The only other choice is to do what you’re espousing in the next game since they missed their chance in the last game. We agree that they should have done more of it last game, and it’s why they should “go for broke” against W.Va. I don’t think doing so would be a mistake of the kind I was talking about. The Buffs can open things up without committing turnovers, getting plays in too slowly or forgetting about the clock. And it IS a lot about WHO runs the routes downfield, as some receivers are faster and can get under posts and the like better than others, and some receivers are taller or can jump better than others for purposes of fades and the like. Let’s hope you’re wrong about CU continuing to stay away from the long ball Thursday.

2. I think you’re more right than I am about how to handle the depth at running back. The “hot hand” idea IS too much of a crap shoot when you’re talking about 4 different backs. Stewart has proven he can do well against pretty much anybody, and Scott should be given the other chance. If either gets injured or is struggling, Lockridge and Sumler are great replacements. So lets go with Scott at Thunder and Stewart at Lightning.

3. Chapelle has got to be the leading tackler on the team, and his coverage has been excellent except for a few struggles against CSU. And did you miss Smith’s game against Toledo? Granted, the defense as a whole wasn’t stellar, but Smith was all over the field. Haven’t you noticed that QBs almost never throw into Smith’s coverage, and fail when they do? When there have been breakdowns in coverage, it has usually been the safeties who messed up, and that was taken care of against Wyoming by using cornerbacks like Burney and Jalil Brown as safeties or nicklebacks. I don’t catch everything, though. What did you see out of those two that gives you such a low opinion of their play?

Tom4Buffs
"Wear Black &/or Gold only,show up early,stand up & get loud,stay til it's over!"

by Tom Moe on Sep 29, 2009 8:47 PM MDT up reply actions  

to your points

1) To answer your question, see my comment. You can use actual games as if they were the preseason, the way most major college programs do while tuning up against ITT Tech. I’m not saying that we should have run up the score on purpose like Urban Meyer does, but we needed to open up the offense in a situation that was a game, but wasn’t detrimental. We had that chance and missed it. You can’t both “go for broke” and “minimize mistakes” just with practice reps. Like I said- if we tear it up in 2 days, I will happily eat my words, but until then, I’m from Missouri. And I totally agree about the who- I’m just saying that a lot of receiving options doesn’t really mean a more diverse passing game. You touched on that yourself. On another thread, I pointed out that, regardless of who was in the pattern, the play had McKnight and his 5 yard out as the #1 option. That won’t cut it.

2) Exactly. I watch a LOT of USC football, and they have tons o talent at running back, but none of them can show it.

3) I have watched all the games repeatedly, and I haven’t seen most of that. Granted, a lot of the reason they look bad is because of the passive front presented by Collins. We don’t throw blitzes at all angles, despite that being the strength of the 3/4 defense. Half of the time, we act like the 3/4/ defense means we should drop 8 into coverage. But neither corner has proven to be a playmaker, and that should be the baseline for “superb.” (not to split hairs) Jimmy Smith should be leading the nation in interceptions right now, and he was terrible against CSU. that’s not superb. that’s mediocre at best.

At some point, if we’re going to get better, someone has got to take responsibility on both sides of the ball and say, “we suck, we have to get better.” It won’t come from the coaches. It has to come from the players. I feel like Burney did that against Wyoming. We’ll see if it holds up. Now it’s time for someone to similarly do that on the other side of the ball. Someone has to decide that “this is my team, and they’re going to ride me to victory.”

Heavy is the head that eats the crayons

by Hallux Valgus on Sep 29, 2009 9:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

Great write up Tom

Serveral things I would add to the fix list.

1. Get Defense turnovers. We have 2 picks and 3 fumble recoveries. The offense needs a lot of help as they have 7 give aways so that makes us -2.

2. I’d rather see Scott if healthy rather than Speedy to start out with. In Scott’s limited time last year his longest run was 42 yards and Speedy’s was 22. Speedy handled the ball 45 more times than did Scott. I am sure Scott has big runs in him if we can keep on the field long enough. We need some big plays, haven’t really had any yet.

3. Drop the rush 3 and cover with 8. Everytime we have done that this year the opponets QB just stands and waits for someone to come open, no pressure. I’d rather see use get beat being aggressive by bringing 5 up front and try to make the QB throw on the run, rather then letting him stand back and pick us a part. Bring our corners up in tight man to man and drop all the zone BS. Make the the Brown brothers, Smith and Burney see if they have what it takes and play man to man. They seem too confused in the zones.

4. Pull Scott of the kick return team. Basically to try and keep him healthy, no suicide squads running at him. We are lacking a returner that can take it all the way. Wonder if maybe Wright or Jefferson could give it a shot.

by TraderJesse on Sep 29, 2009 8:45 PM MDT reply actions  

Scott

Does Darell Scott have a ligament tear? Just read that on another board… and that he might miss this game and UT before coming back.

by BuffulanceMan on Sep 30, 2009 7:51 AM MDT reply actions  

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